Asuransi Pertambangan

What Are Indonesia’s Coal Industry Prospects in 2023?

Liga Asuransi – Dear Reader, how are you? Hopefully, your business in 2022 will run smoothly, as expected. We hope that it will be even more successful in 2023.

To prepare the company’s work plan for 2023, let’s see what challenges and opportunities we will face. This needs to be done so that the company’s management can take strategic steps to deal with it.

If we see an opportunity, the company can create a work program to take advantage of the opportunity as much as possible. And vice versa, if there are challenges, companies can also take steps to anticipate them.

As we have often heard recently, the global economic outlook in 2023 is predicted to experience recession and financial instability due to slowing economic growth in developed countries, such as Europe, China, to the United States.

Nonetheless, some countries are expected to escape recession as those countries begin to recover, and inflationary pressures begin to weaken. Most countries expected to exit this recession are in the ASEAN region, one of which is Indonesia.

To find out what the opportunities for the Indonesian coal mining industry will be in 2023, here we write some information that we collect from various sources. See the link below.

If you are interested in this article, please share it with your colleagues so that they also understand like you.

Indonesia’s Economic Growth Forecast 5,3%

The macro assumption of the 2023 State Budget also targets economic growth of 5.3 percent. The optimism of Indonesia being safe from the recession has also been previously conveyed by President Joko Widodo.

As is known, Indonesia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2022 was recorded to grow by 5.72% annually (year-on-year / yoy). The wheels of Indonesia’s economy are running amid a recession that has hit various countries, especially developed countries.

Head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Margo Yuwono said several sectors of the economy are immune from the recession, one of which is the coal industry. The reason is that these sectors of the economy recorded impressive performance; some even grew to double digits.

Margo said that the second largest contributor to economic growth, the mining sector, was 13.47 percent.

Coal Prices Fall in 2023

Coal prices are predicted to decline throughout 2023, although supply is expected to remain tight. The price decline was influenced by increased production and the demand that tends to slow down.

Observers estimate that three main factors suppress the selling price of coal in 2023 lower than the realization in 2022.

  1. The first factor is that China and India’s domestic coal production is predicted to increase.
  2. The second factor is the start of reduced coal demand in line with the continued rollout of the use of environmentally friendly fuels.
  3. Meanwhile, the third factor is the aggressiveness of coal mining, which impacts increasing volumes and can trigger lower prices.

Observers estimate that the average global coal price in 2023 will reach US$ 280 per ton, down about 12.5% from the 2022 forecast.

However, the price is still far above average in recent years. This is due to the still tight energy supply, especially in Europe due to the Ukraine-Russia war.

The long-term prospects of Indonesian coal will be determined by how fast the application of renewable and environmentally friendly energy is. This will determine the opportunities for coal sales in the long term. Based on data, coal consumers are predicted to fall by 10% in 2030.

Indonesia’s coal production is expected to increase by 8% to 663 million tons in 2022. As of September 2022, the realization of coal production has reached 436.8 million tons, or 65.9% of this year’s production target. 

Meanwhile, coal production in 2023 is predicted to increase by 4.7% to 694 million tons.

The profit level of domestic coal companies will also be affected by the new royalty rate scheme. The previous government had raised the target of new progressive royalties for coal commodities from 3-7% to 5-13.5%, adjusted to the Indonesian Coal Price (HBA).

The profits of coal companies are also affected by the new progressive tax scheme for special mining business permits (IUPK) as an extension of coal work contracts. Under this scheme, the coal royalty tax rate was revised from 13.5% to 14-28%, adjusted to the HBA.

The government also implemented a profit-sharing scheme of 10% of the net profit of coal miners. The deduction funds are distributed to the central and local governments.

The prospects for the coal industry in 2023 are still quite promising. This is illustrated by the plans of several coal companies ready to boost production next year.

Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Hendra Sinadia revealed there is a potential to increase coal production for next year.

Coal demand remains high in 2023

Although it is estimated that in 2023 global economic conditions are expected to experience a recession, coal demand remains in good condition. It will not be as severe as it was at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Several factors will affect production performance next year, including weather factors to the availability of heavy equipment.

The coal price factor is also one of the challenges for improving performance next year. The disparity in the selling price of national coal causes companies to be unable to maximize the increase in commodity prices.

Government policies and regulations will also influence the national coal industry in 2023. With the issuance of the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 267 of 2022 concerning the Fulfillment of Domestic Coal Needs, it will also be a factor that affects the coal industry.

In addition, business actors are now also still waiting for the tariff mechanism of the Coal Public Service Agency (BLU). The implementation of BLU Batubara is said to start in the first quarter of 2023.

Coal Demand from China

Coal demand from China will still be high in the short term due to declining stocks and high demand, especially from power plants.

In the medium term, despite the potential for an increase in demand after the easing of the Covid-19 restriction policy, the Chinese government’s plan to increase domestic coal production can partially reduce the growth in Chinese coal demand from Indonesia.

As predicted, China plans to increase coal production capacity with a total additional production capacity of 559 million tons: about 29% of the whole planned addition of new coal mining capacity worldwide.

In addition, China’s total national coal production in the first to third quarters of 2022 was recorded at 3.3 billion tons, exceeding the pre-pandemic average (2.6 billion tons).

Coal Demand from India

Besides China, an increase in national coal production is also carried out by India, where the Indian government targets that from 2024/2025, India’s coal needs will be met with domestic production.

Coal India LTD recorded coal production of 560.8 million tonnes in January-October 2022 (up 11% YoY/year on year), exceeding the 5-year average (471 million tones), and India accounted for ~16% of the total planned addition of new coal mining capacity worldwide.

Risk Management and Insurance for the Coal Industry

The coal mining industry’s role is vital for increasing state revenue. Still, in line with the rapid activities of the coal mining industry, potential risks need to be anticipated to avoid loss.

Therefore, it is necessary to have the best risk management so that every accident and loss can be handled quickly and the losses caused can be suppressed.

One of the best ways to mitigate risks in the coal industry is to take care of insurance coverage.

From an insurance point of view, the risk of the coal industry is included in the high-risk group, because of which only a few insurance companies are interested in providing guarantees.

The risks that can occur are mine accidents due to explosions, heavy equipment accidents, crushing plant damage, jetties, and work accidents for workers. Accidents also happen during transportation from the mine, transfer to the mother vessel, and delivery to the destination country.

The best way to get insurance for a coal mine is to use an insurance broker company. An insurance broker is an insurance expert who can design an insurance program that suits your needs, negotiating with some of the best insurance companies to get the most competitive premium costs.

The most important role of an insurance broker is to help you to handle insurance claims. The insurance broker will act as your advocate to take care of the claim to the insurance company.

One insurance broker with extensive experience in the field of coal mining risk is L&G Insurance Broker.

For all your insurance needs, contact L&G right now.

Sources:

  1. https://economy.okezone.com/read/2022/11/17/320/2709505/ada-resesi-di-2023-begini-prospek-tambang-batu-bara
  2. https://investor.id/market-and-corporate/315495/harga-batubara-diprediksi-lebih-rendah-di-2023-simak-rekomendasi-sahamnya
  3. https://industri.kontan.co.id/news/emiten-batubara-genjot-produksi-tahun-2023
  4. https://www.topbusiness.id/70521/harga-batu-bara-diprediksi-naik-2023-ini-rekomendasi-sahamnya.html

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