Entering October 2025, global and domestic economic conditions present an attractive combination of challenges and opportunities. Amidst financial market fluctuations and global trade dynamics, Indonesia continues to demonstrate resilience through non-oil and gas export growth and a trade surplus. According to data BPS, the value of Indonesian exports during January–July 2025 has reached USD 160.16 billion, an increase of around 8.03% compared to the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, the trade balance also recorded a surplus, indicating that Indonesia’s export competitiveness remains strong.
On the capital market side,IHSGalso solidified optimistic steps: at the close of September 29, 2025, the JCI strengthened 0.30% to 8,123.24. Net foreign buying and strengthening of basic sectors also contributed to positive sentiment.
This situation creates room for optimism: Indonesia has a number of export commodities with potential for growth heading into October 2025. However, these opportunities also carry risks—ranging from logistical disruptions, changing global regulations, and global price fluctuations. Therefore,protection through insurance is the key to keeping your projects, investments and exports safe.
L&G Insurance Broker is ready to be your partner in providing general and financial insurance solutions — starting from Surety Bond / Bank Guarantee, Public Liability, to Shipping Insurance (Marine Cargo) — to support the security of your commodity projects and investments.
In this article, we will discuss:
- Export commodities with potential to increase in October 2025
- Driving factors and challenges
- The relationship between export and import opportunities and the need for insurance protection
- Recommended insurance product types & strategies
- Conclusion & recommendations with CTA
1. Export Commodities with Potential to Increase & Import Opportunities
Based on current trends and economic data, here are some of Indonesia’s leading export commodities with potential for growth by October 2025, along with related import opportunities:
1.1 Palm Oil (CPO and its derivatives)
Palm oil remains Indonesia’s leading export commodity. CPO tops the list of leading commodities for 2025.This advantage is reinforced by the trade agreement currently being finalized between Indonesia and the European Union: around 80% of Indonesian export products, including palm oil, will receive tariff relief.This could increase exports of CPO and its derivative products (cooking oil, oleochemicals, biodiesel) to European markets and beyond.
1.2 Coffee & Premium Coffee Products
Coffee continues to show potential, particularly for specialty coffees and value-added products. Reports indicate that Indonesian coffee exports will reach approximately 2025 206.7 million kg for a certain period, with the US as one of the main markets. With global consumer preference for quality coffee, the export opportunities for premium coffee are wide open.
1.3 Shrimp / Fishery Products
Shrimp is also considered a promising export commodity, according to several commodity predictions for 2025. Demand for fisheries and marine products continues to grow in global markets, especially in East Asia and North America.
1.4 Natural Rubber & Rubber Products
Natural rubber is one of Indonesia’s traditional export commodities. Among the list of leading commodities, rubber continues to emerge as a sector with potential for increased exports. However, new regulations such as the EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation) also require that agroecological products must meet sustainability requirements — which could potentially impact rubber exports if they do not meet sustainability requirements.
1.5 Textiles & Textile Products (TPT)
Textiles and textile products are also referred to as potential export sectors. Value-added textile products (dyeing, finishing, finished products) can benefit from tariff relief in trade agreements.
1.6 Mineral & Metal Commodities
In the BPS report, non-oil and gas exports dominate Indonesia’s exports, and the industrial sector contributed up to 79% of the total export value until June 2025. Several metal and mineral commodities also showed a surge in exports—for example, metal ore, slag, and ash increased sharply in the first quarter of 2025.
1.7 Export-Import Data & Trends
- According to TradingEconomics, Indonesia’s exports in July 2025 reached USD 24.75 billion, growing by 9.86%YoY.
- From the dataOne Data Ministry of Trade, non-oil and gas exports until July 2025 reached USD 152.20 billion, growing by 9.55%.
- On the import side, in July 2025, Indonesia’s imports reached USD 20.58 billion, up 6.43% month-on-month.
- Important note: a trade surplus remains, but projections indicate less downward pressure on export growth than imports.
Based on this data, October 2025 has the potential to be a month where a number of export commodities experience a surge in volume and prices, particularly CPO and agricultural/agro products, marine commodities, and textile/value-added textile products.
2. Driving Factors & Challenges
For this export opportunity to be realized, there are several supporting factors that must be strengthened — and challenges that must be anticipated:
Driving Factors
- International Trade Agreements
The agreement between Indonesia and the European Union (IEU-CEPA) opens market access so that export products such as palm oil, textiles, fish, and agricultural products can receive low or zero tariffs on exports to Europe.
This provides an incentive for producers to increase export volumes and capacity by the end of 2025. - Global Demand & Energy Transition
The global shift to green energy and the need for mineral materials (such as nickel) support Indonesia’s metal exports.
For agricultural commodities (palm oil, coffee, rubber), global demand remains high for food, cosmetics, alternative foods, and biofuels. - Stable Non-Oil and Gas Export Performance
Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports make a significant contribution to total exports: as of July 2025, non-oil and gas exports reached USD 152.20 billion (up 9.55%) of total exports of USD 160.16 billion. - Capital Market Action & Financial Sentiment
The strengthening of the JCI and foreign investor interest (net buy) reflect market expectations for good economic and export performance.
This positive sentiment can encourage investment in the export sector and the processing industry.
Challenges & Risks
- Global Commodity Price Volatility
Prices for palm oil, rubber, metals and seafood are highly vulnerable to global fluctuations — changes in supply or consumer country policies can squeeze margins. - RegulationSustainability & Environment
Regulations such as the EUDR, which require the export of deforestation-free agricultural products, present challenges for producers who do not yet meet the standards. - Logistics Costs & Supply Chain Disruptions
Ocean freight costs, port constraints, bad weather, and supply chain disruptions can hinder the timely realization of export deliveries. - Import Risk & Raw Material Dependence
The need for imported industrial raw materials (chemicals, machinery, technology) could surge if domestic production is insufficient, putting pressure on export margins. - Project, Construction & Operational Risks
For the expansion of production or processing facilities for commodities, construction risks, technical failures, operational disruptions, or asset damage can result in high losses. - Global Policy Uncertainty & Tariffs
Example: potential US tariffs on Indonesian exports could cut export growth by 0.3–0.5 percentage points.
3. Linkages to Export Opportunities & Implications for Insurance
As export and import opportunities grow, so does a company’s risk exposure—especially if you’re in the commodity production, export, or processing sectors. Here’s how insurance became an important protection instrument:
3.1 Project and Construction Protection
Companies expanding their export processing facilities, export/import warehousing, or export terminals need protection during the construction phase. Risks of machine failure, fire, extreme weather, and construction accidents can be prevented through a policy Engineering / Construction All Risks And Erection / Installation All Risks.
3.2 Asset & Operational Protection
Once a facility is operational, fixed assets such as buildings, machinery, inventory, and production equipment are at risk of damage, natural disasters, theft, and technical disruptions.Property All Risks become the main protection to maintain operational continuity.
3.3 Risk of Production Disruption (Business Interruption)
If production is disrupted due to a covered event (fire, disaster, machine failure), the policy Business Interruption (BI) can replace lost income during the recovery. This is especially important if exports are delayed.
3.4 Marine Cargo Insurance
In order for export goods to reach their destination safely, the policyMarine Cargo / Marine Insurance covers the risks of damage, loss, delay and force majeure during sea, port and transit transportation.
3.5 Contract Guarantee & Financial Certainty
In large projects related to exports or the construction of export/import facilities, clients or project owners often ask for guarantees such asSurety Bond / Bank Guarantee(performance bond, bid bond, advance payment guarantee) so that the project is implemented according to commitment.
3.6 Third Party Liability
Production, processing, export, or distribution activities may result in losses to third parties (environmental, work accidents, damage to neighboring property). Policy Public Liability / Third-Party Liability important to limit risks and lawsuits.
3.7 Financial & Reputational Risk Management
With insurance protection, companies gain confidence that significant risks are managed. This adds value when attracting investors, securing loans, and maintaining a professional reputation as a risk-aware entity.
4. Insurance Strategy & Product Recommendations
Here are the strategies and insurance product mixes that your company should consider in facing export-import opportunities and risks in 2025:
| Strategy / Stages | Recommended Insurance Products | Implementation Notes |
| Project Planning & Construction | Engineering All Risks, Erection/Installation All Risks | The policy covers damage during construction & installation of machinery; an initial risk survey is essential. |
| During Operation & Production | Property All Risks, Machinery Breakdown, Business Interruption | Ensure the coverage is sufficient for quick recovery and income protection. |
| Export Shipping of Goods | Marine Cargo / Marine Insurance | Choose a policy with “door-to-door” coverage, covering marine & transit risks. |
| Project Contracts & Guarantees | Surety Bond / Bank Garansi (Performance, Bid, Advance Payment) | Use contractual guarantees to reassure clients and project owners. |
| Public & Environmental Accountability | Public Liability / Third-Party Liability | Covers third party damage claims that may arise during operations |
| Periodic Review & Adjustment | Police audit & limit adjustment | Conduct a review every 6 months, especially if production capacity or export value increases. |
| Combination & Integrated Policy Packages | Cover all major risks in one package | Facilitates policy management and synergy between insurance products |
5. Conclusion
October 2025 presents promising export opportunities for Indonesia, particularly in the palm oil and derivatives, premium coffee, shrimp and seafood, rubber, textiles, and minerals and processing industries. Strong non-oil and gas export trends, new trade agreements, and the strengthening of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) provide positive signals for industry players. However, global risks—such as price fluctuations, sustainability regulations, high logistics costs, and operational disruptions—cannot be ignored.
Therefore, using Insurance as a protection tool is not an option, but a strategic necessity. The right insurance products (Engineering, Property, Business Interruption, Marine Cargo, Surety Bond, Public Liability) can keep your projects and investments safe and sustainable.
L&G Insurance Broker We’re ready to be your company’s protective partner. With our extensive expertise and network, we provide general and financial insurance solutions (including Insurance, Surety Bonds/Bank Guarantees, Public Liability, and Marine Cargo) tailored to the needs of your export-import industry and projects.
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